A low-pressure area is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal around July 3.
Odisha: According to long-range forecasts by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), there are indications of significant weather changes over the northwest Bay of Bengal and near the Odisha coast. The department anticipates the formation of an upper-air cyclonic circulation, which could trigger the development of a low-pressure area over the north Bay of Bengal around July 3.
Meteorologists state that most numerical weather prediction models—including IMD-GFS, NCEP-GFS, NCMRWF Mithun, and ECMWF—confirm this potential development. These models suggest that the upper-air cyclonic circulation is likely to form around July 2, followed by the development of a low-pressure area over the north Bay of Bengal around July 3 or 4.
Experts predict that once formed, this weather system may move gradually in a west-northwest direction. There is also a possibility that the system will intensify as it approaches the coast. According to NCEP-GFS and ECMWF models, this low-pressure area could become more active and influence weather conditions over the next two to three days.
Ensemble models used for weather forecasting, such as GEFS and the Mithun ensemble system, also support the likelihood of an organized low-pressure area developing over the north Bay of Bengal. These models indicate that the system could gradually organize and have a significant impact on the weather.
Additionally, AI-based weather models are confirming this potential shift. AI models like Pangu Weather and GraphCast—which utilize the Mithun model—have also predicted the possible formation of a low-pressure area over the northeast Bay of Bengal around July 3.
According to these AI models, the system could intensify further by July 4. Subsequently, around July 5, it might evolve into a depression (a deeper low-pressure system) over the northwest Bay of Bengal. Although the FourCastNet model suggests a slightly different trend, the majority of models support the likelihood of this system developing and intensifying. Meteorologists believe that such marine systems can influence monsoon activity. A low-pressure area forming over the northern Bay of Bengal could intensify rainfall across Odisha, West Bengal, and adjacent coastal regions. This system may also impact sea conditions, potentially necessitating advisories for fishermen to exercise caution.
While the IMD currently classifies this system as being in its initial stage, ongoing model analysis suggests that weather conditions could change rapidly in the coming days. The department is closely monitoring the situation, and further updates will be issued periodically.
Experts state that if the system develops as anticipated, it could significantly impact regional weather. There is an increased likelihood of heavy rainfall, strong winds, and altered sea conditions, particularly in coastal states.
For now, the Meteorological Department has urged the public to rely on official weather updates and disregard rumors. All eyes will be on the system’s progression in the coming days, as it could prove to be a crucial indicator for monsoon activity.
