AIUDF exit from India will help BJP in Assam
Guwahati (IANS). Congress in Assam, led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, managed to bring together 12 parties to form a unified opposition platform to counter the BJP’s rampant election machinery in the state, much before the 26 opposition parties formed the India Alliance .
The joint opposition forum included Sivasagar MLA Akhil Gogoi’s Raijor Dole, former All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) leader Lurinjyoti Gogoi’s Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), and others.
But it lacks a major player in Assamese politics, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). Initially, the Trinamool Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) were also not given a place in the opposition platform.
But, the situation changed to a great extent after the announcement of India Bloc and both Trinamool Congress and AAP are now constituents of the United Opposition Forum.
But, Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF has still not been included. Assam has a sizeable number of Muslim voters and more than 30 per cent of the people in the state are from the minority community.
The role of AIUDF is important in the political scenario of Assam.
Since its inception in 2005, the party has played a significant role in the politics of Assam.
It won 18 seats in the 2011 assembly elections, making them the main opposition party in the state. In 2016, the number of seats came down to 13, though the AIUDF managed to get 16 seats in the 2021 assembly elections.
Later, after leaving the party, one of their MLAs was re-elected on a BJP ticket. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the AIUDF captured three of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Assam.
The vote tally declined in the 2019 general elections and was only able to capture the party stronghold of Ajmal Dhubri.
To oust the BJP from power in Assam, the Congress and the AIUDF had formed a broad alliance ahead of the 2021 assembly elections.
It won over 40 seats in the 126-member assembly but fell short of a majority.
Relations between the two parties further deteriorated following a tussle over cross-voting in favor of the BJP candidate in the Rajya Sabha elections. The Congress rejected the alliance.
Assam Congress President Bhupen Bora is adamant on not taking AIUDF with him.
Bora said that we had tied up with Ajmal’s party in the last assembly elections. But, what we could see was that AIUDF leaders were continuously making inflammatory statements, which helped BJP to consolidate Hindu votes.
The saffron camp was trying its best to polarise. However, they seemed unsuccessful in achieving their goal. It was the statements of the AIUDF leaders that helped the BJP to swing the results in its favour.
Meanwhile, the AIUDF has claimed several times that the fight against the BJP will fail if they are not included in the alliance.
AIUDF general secretary Aminul Islam said that currently Assam has around 40 per cent Muslim population.
Congress has lost its base among many communities. So, they want to rely on Muslim votes. But minority people have full faith in Badruddin Ajmal and will vote for AIUDF only.
Reacting to this, senior Congress MLA Debabrata Saikia said that AIUDF leaders are misleading the people. They cannot win any seat in 2024 general election.
Though the Assam Congress is trying to weaken Ajmal, the truth is that the AIUDF still holds a good following among the Muslim voters.
Apart from this, Muslim votes will play an important role in deciding the winner in half a dozen seats.
It is quite clear that any split in the minority vote will help the BJP increase its tally. Therefore, the exit of AIUDF from India is undoubtedly an advantage for the saffron camp.
