Lupin Q1: Revenue rises on US sales, market share gain
Business Business: Indian drugmaker Lupin is scheduled to present its April-June quarter earnings for the financial year 2024-25 (Q1FY25) on Tuesday, August 6, 2024. Brokerage estimates suggest that the pharma major is expected to see strong double-digit growth in the bottom line year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and single-digit growth in the top line. According to analyst estimates compiled by Business Standard, Lupin’s average revenue may grow 6.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 5,133 crore as against Rs 4,814 crore in Q1FY24. Sequentially, the topline may grow 3.4 per cent as against Rs 4,960 crore in Q4FY24. Further, the pharma major may report a moderate net profit of Rs 603 crore for the June quarter as against Rs 452 crore in Q1FY24, indicating a 33.4 per cent year-on-year growth for Q1FY25. On a quarterly basis, the profit may decline by 7.6 per cent. The company reported a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 562 crore in the December quarter of FY24.
Kotak Institutional Equities:
The brokerage expects Lupin to report US sales of $220 million in Q1FY25, a 5 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth. They point to higher drug sales of Spiriva, equivalent to $35 million, also taking into account the launch of Myrbetriq (25 mg) and continued gains from Prolensa. However, competition from Strides in Suprep could erode the gains from Prolensa. Domestic sales are forecast to grow 10 percent year-on-year, while total sales will grow 8 percent year-on-year. Gross margin is forecast to decline 40 basis points to 67.9 percent, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) is expected to grow 24 percent year-on-year, reflecting a 20 basis point quarter-on-quarter increase in EBITDA margin to 20.3 percent. InCred Equities: Analysts at InCred forecast modest growth in U.S. sales driven by Mirabegron, which will grow 4 percent year-on-year to $218 million, and expect high single-digit year-on-year growth in the Indian market. Margins are forecast to improve 70 basis points quarter-on-quarter due to the Mirabegron launch.
