DMK’s clever strategy and DMDK’s political compulsion
Tamil Nadu: Just as North Tamil Nadu is the political compass that determines the seat of power in Tamil Nadu, electoral history over the past half century has shown that whoever wins Chennai will win the fort. Specifically, electoral history over the past fifty years has shown that whoever wins a majority of the 80-plus seats in the 11 northern districts of Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, Vellore, Ranipet, Tirupattur, Tiruvannamalai, Villupuram, Kallakurichi, and Cuddalore will come to power.
That’s why the DMK wants to maintain its dominance in these northern districts.
Judging by the 2021 election results, the DMK won 40 seats in the northern districts of Tiruvallur, Chennai, Kanchipuram, Vellore, Tiruvannamalai, and Villupuram. The AIADMK won only 29 seats. This difference in seats determined the change of power.
DMK’s Strategy
The DMK and DMDK, who have been political rivals, joining forces for the first time could create a new voting balance in the northern districts.
Chief Minister M. Kasturi has set a target of winning at least 200+ seats this time. To achieve this, the DMK leadership’s top priority will be to meet the DMDK’s preferred seats and needs. In short, this is not just a seat-sharing arrangement, but a major political move that will split the opposition’s vote bank and statistically confirm its victory.
In the 2021 assembly elections, the margin of victory in many constituencies in the northern districts was as low as 1,000 to 5,000 votes. In particular, the AIADMK faced a tough fight in several constituencies. In such a tight contest, the 2 to 3 percent vote share held by the DMDK will become a swing vote and act as a shield to ensure the victory of DMK candidates.
DMDK’s Vote Bank
Vijayakanth founded the DMDK in Madurai on September 14, 2005. By securing 8.38 percent of the vote in its first election in 2006, the DMDK raised hopes for a third party in Tamil Nadu politics. Subsequently, Vijayakanth contested the 2011 elections in alliance with the AIADMK and won 29 seats.
However, the party’s failure to win a single seat in 2016, its failure to win a single seat in 2021 despite contesting 60 seats, and its continued decline after contesting five seats in 2024 and winning none, have exposed the DMDK’s weaknesses in its party structure.
Despite contesting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in alliance with the AIADMK, the DMDK’s vote share of approximately 2.18% proves that the party’s grassroots workers have not yet dispersed and are entrenched in certain districts. Specifically, out of 69 seats in the northern districts of Kanchipuram, Vellore, Tiruvallur, Villupuram, and Tiruvannamalai, not only the DMDK but also the PMK came in third in 39 seats. This means that victory or defeat in these districts is determined by the combination of caste and social vote banks. Here, even 2% of a party’s votes can become swing votes, determining victory. If the DMDK had joined forces with the AIADMK, it would have further strengthened the opposition in northern Tamil Nadu. Preventing this and drawing the DMDK to its side, putting the opposition camp on the defensive, is being seen as a clever strategy by the DMK. Political analysts predict that when DMDK votes are combined with DMK votes, it will create a strong base for a DMK-led alliance in northern Tamil Nadu.
Since Vijayakanth launched the National Progressive Dravida Kazhagam party in 2005, he has consistently opposed the DMK. In 2016, when the situation appeared certain that an alliance with the DMK would win, he still attempted to form a third party on his own. The DMK also considered the DMDK its enemy. Nevertheless, Premalatha’s alliance with the DMDK, now without Vijayakanth, is driven by vote bank considerations.
The Impact of the Tamil Nadu Victory Club
Amidst these challenges, actor Vijay’s second political party, the Tamil Nadu Vettri Kazhagam, which he launched, will likely contest all 234 seats alone. The DMK leadership feels it’s safe to keep parties with traditional vote banks on its side, as the party is likely to garner votes from youth, new voters, and neutral voters.
The extent of the DMDK vote bank that remains vibrant and how many of those votes go directly to the DMK candidate will determine who wins the 80 seats in northern Tamil Nadu.
